Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer is telling everyone that will listen that Windows 7 is selling like crazy -- flying off the shelves, even, like it was some kind of mythical Cabbage Patch Kid/Tickle Me Elmo hybrid. It's been almost a month since the new operating system launched, and Ballmer has stated that this version of Windows has sold twice as many copies over the same period that any other version of Windows.
I find that extremely hard to believe. And here's why:
1) The economy sucks. Whether you think the government stimulus funds worked or not, unemployment is still high and consumer confidence is still low. And Ballmer himself just recently painted an extremely pessimistic picture of the situation when he said that IT spending would never recover to the levels seen earlier in this decade. If that's the case, then Windows 7 must be some kind of amazing, ultra-powerfu, recession-busting product. Look, the OS has gotten positive reviews, but not that positive.
2) We've heard this before. Not to sound like a smarmy Apple advertisement, but we have. Microsoft always says that the latest version of Windows is the biggest and best-selling version yet. Even Vista. And that was before the company essentially ordered retailers to stop selling Windows XP machines.
3) Upgrade issues. Apparently, this is a real hitch for Windows 7. As ChannelWeb previously reported, the upgrade process hasn't been a disaster, but there have enough complaints and frustrated customers to make this an issue for Microsoft.
4) Divided views on increased PC sales. Michael Dell says Windows 7 is going to provide a major boost for new PC sales. But we expect him to say such a thing, especially since his business is hurting right now and he needs all the positive buzz he can get. And yes, NPD Group reports that Windows 7 boxed sales were up a whopping 234 percent over Vista's sales during the first few days since launch. But perspectives differ. Gartner, for example, says Windows 7 won't have a huge effect on new PC sales this year. "Although the buzz surrounding Windows 7 has generally been quite positive, we don't expect the market to significantly deviate from its normal seasonal trends in reaction to its release," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. Media outlets are reporting that PC vendors haven't seen a big increase, either. It would help if Microsoft could provide some visibility on Windows 7, which brings us to my last point...
5) Microsoft won't divulge the numbers. Why? If sales of so great, why not just release the sales figures? What's to hide? (Jeez, I sound like Glenn Beck right now). The Wall Street Journal reports that since Windows Vista sold 20 million copies in its first month (during a slightly less horrific economic environment), then Ballmer's claims for Windows 7 would put sales at around 40 million or better.
Again, if Windows 7 business is booming, then it would only make sense for Microsoft to release the figures. But it hasn't, and you have to wonder why. Maybe new PC sales, which is usually the most common way people buy a new OS, aren't that great. But we don't know, and we won't know until Microsoft opens up. Until then, I reserve the right to be extremely skeptical.
