A much-linked post on Slate yesterday declared, "The Recession Is Over!", quoting proprietary research from the Economic Cycles Research Institute, and other sources:

"[ECRI's] long-leading index growth rate has been recovering since November 2008, the weekly leading index has been recovering since last December, and the short-leading index growth rate bottomed in February 2009. In sequence, each turned up... Sure, corporate profits continue to disappoint, and the unemployment rate is climbing. But for ECRI, which navigates by relying exclusively on its instruments, that's only a part of their picture..."

Using earlier ECRI data, econo-blogger Barry Ritholtz pegged the end of the recession "sometime in the first half of 2010". So this is good news -- though job creation remains a way off.

Even rough times have an upside for solution providers, though. Our Steven Burke reports that businesses are reaching out to solution providers:

"The OnForce Services Marketplace Index for the second quarter shows a marked rise in services partners providing "micro-staffing" services for IT departments struggling to do maintenance and network changes in the wake of layoffs."

Though things are not as promising on the hardware side. In another report, Burke finds a corporate world laden with too many PCs:

"A huge excess supply of IT equipment in businesses, a result of a blizzard of layoffs in corporate America... is going to continue to provide a hang-over for PC product sales oriented solution providers."

But there's always the hope of new technologies shaking up the market. See our reports: 10 Glimmers Of Hope In The IT Industry Wreckage, Upcoming Tech That Will Rock Your World, and Five Trends That Help VARs Grow.

Meanwhile, veteran industry observer Michael Malone says high tech may even get fun again:

"The last seven years of high tech can be characterized as a dozen or so major companies, each with a lock on their marketplace, and each doing their damndest not to interfere with each other’s success...

Everywhere you look right now, companies are moving fast to step on each other’s turf. And when I say fast, please note that almost none of this had surfaced even three months ago - and now almost everything seems to be in play."

Finally, Robert Faletra's May advice remains sound:

"You have to plan for a weakened economy at least through next year. If it improves faster, then it's a plus, but I don't think you can count on it... This downturn is the longest of our adult lives and it is going to set many more records before it is all over. You have to cut costs, conserve cash and find new sales to get through this. "

Fast Growth isn't just for solution providers -- retailers are out there driving their businesses forward as well, in good times and bad. Everything Channel will be recognizing Fast Growth Retailers at our RetailVision event in Denver, at the end of August.

But first we want to make sure we've found the top growing retailers in America. Entries for this year's awards are free, and available now at crn.com/retailvisionfgform. The entry deadline is August 3rd, so if you're a retailer making a mark in your community, let us know!

Two of my colleagues from Channelweb have joined me blogging here in Channelweb Connect.

Ed Moltzen has launched Inside Ball, looking at business and tech trends in the channel. Ed is managing editor in charge of the Channel Test Center, and author of The Chart blog, over on the main site. In one of his first posts here, he cautions against getting too caught up in Google's OS hype:

"Nobody has seen Google's Chrome OS, which the search giant announced Tuesday night. There have been no performance benchmarks, usability evaluations, nothing"

Meanwhile, Steven Burke, Channelweb's Editor for News, has launched The Real Channel, an ongoing series on the "trials and tribulations of solution providers and vendor channel personnel". Steve's one of the most relentless reporters you'll find anywhere, and his insights, like this one on Dell's hiring of channel veteran Nancy Reynolds, should be illuminating:

"Make no mistake about it -- the Reynolds addition represents a move by Dell to go out and recruit HP and IBM partners and bring them into the Dell enterprise posse."